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Isn't this the WORST time to buy a laptop?

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
It's been months now, I've waited, and waited and waited. I chose then changed my mind countless times.
And finally found this.
This is really a bad time to buy a laptop.
Why?

Well, this is real hard to explain but I'll try.

I'll try to focus on CPUs and leave the rest of the topic for future posts..

PIV: probably the most powerful, the fastest the kick-ass the whatever. Problem is Battery life is next to none. Keep in mind That we're talking laptops here, not portables, to me (do not flame me) battery life IS really important. Any change in the near future? Maybe, maybe not. Who knows? Another thing: since you want to kick ass, you need a kick ass PIV, the best, the fastest PIV money can buy. But that's exactly what you need: money, and quite a lot of it. The future? well, we all know that Intel has the PM/Centrino wagon to push on the laptop track. So I suppose is quite safe to say that the only improvements we'll ever get from PIVS on laptops is more power and less battery.

Pentium M: As we said Pentium IV are fast. Possibly the fastest around. But what does this mean? I took my time and had a look to thousands of benchmarks, reviews, tests and so on. Sure PIVs are really fast, but Pentium M lags behind only in those tasks that require HT or rely a lot on bus transfers. In other tests, well, the gap is really not much. And when I say not much I mean that the final user won't probably even feel the difference. Even when you compare Pentium Ms with PIV on pure brute force tests (like Dhrystone and Whetstone) the results are quite surprising. Then you can add battery life onto the equation. And then price. And you'll realize that you can buy a fairly decent machine under 2000$ with plenty of power and plenty of battery life. So everything is just fine: we have to buy a Centrino laptop. Nope. Enters Dothan.
The new Pentium M is supposed to be faster than Banias (current PM) while guarantee the same battery life. More on that, if the difference between the PIVs and the PMs is quite narrow today, what will happen with Dothan? The gap would remain the same, you might say, because the PIVS will be upgraded as well. Sure, but fitting a desktop PIV into a lappy is not an easy task, and it might just be getting more difficult as we go on. Newer PIVs will be more powerful, but maybe more powerhungry and even more hot. We might get to the point when building a lappy on a new PIV would be simply not practical. So we buy Dothan. But it's not out yet. All you can do is buy a "Dothan Ready" laptop. Which means you have to swap the current Banias chip you bought for a new (and pricey) Dothan chips when is ready. I think this is quite a waste of money. Think about what would happen to current Banias chip prices when the new chips arrive. You might get stuck with an old CPU you can't sell, and you might have bought a second laptop with the price you OVERPAID the new chip (it always happen in the first few months)

A64: urmm.. uurrmmmm.... This is a tricky one. A64s are quite strange family of chips. I would call them the "might" or "might not" chips (again don't flame me, all my desktops are Athlons I really love the chip). Facts are:

Faster than PMs but not as fast as PIVs (lacks HT and believe it or not, there are some nasty applications which actually use the stuff..)

Better battery life than PIV but not as much as the PMs

64bit is good, but is definitely not now. Think about productivity and applications, I'm not talking OSes not in Beta nor Linux. I'm talking applications. I'm talking Office, Photoshop, Macromedia suite, 3dsmax... The latter, for example, is supposed to be upgraded to 64bit sometime in 2006 - 2007... I don't know you, but I feel I could have changed at least two or three machines in the meantime...

And LAST BUT NOT LEAST here comes the main problem. Current A64 notebooks use DTR cpus. Not mobiles. And the same "dilemma" that I had for the PMs comes again: would you risk to buy NOW a chip that in a few months "might" be obsolete? (the "might" is a must here... nobody knows for sure how a Mobile A64 would rate against a DTR chip...)

... And this is just comparing CPUs... now we could talk about screensize, battery technology, cool stuff (like 6 in one readers, integrated digital cameras, Gigabyte ethernet, firewire 800...)

All that said, here are my thoughts: Buy a laptop computer NOW is probably a bad move. In a few months or less you could possibly buy a new, more powerful notebook for the same price, or just the same notebook you want now for a lot less money. Sure it happens all the time with computers, there's a lot of those "wait forever" guys who keep waiting for the next technology, but I'm really not one of them. Fact is, I really think we have to wait a few more time, just to see what's behind the corner.

What do you think? Am I wrong?
post #2 of 35
"In a few months or less you could possibly buy a new, more powerful notebook for the same price, or just the same notebook you want now for a lot less money."

Isnt this the general rule for any computer? I dont see why now is any different. Yes, new things are around a closer corner now than they were 2 weeks ago...but as such the cycle goes
post #3 of 35
the a64 does not need HTT coz it has a built-in memory controller on its cpu...

HTT was a term coined by intel when they came out with a way to make up for its long and inefficient pipeline found in the p4...

when intel was beaten to the 1Ghz mark by the much smaller company AMD... they have been forever in a race war of MHz over amd... their idea of "more mhz is better" was what led to the creation of the p4... long pipelines, while inefficient, produces higher clocked frequencies...

so while the p4 was getting the highest clock scores... it was not necessarily the fastest cpu... because as benchmark told the truth, the amd chips, which were lower clocked, had actually higher performance MHZ for MHZ when compared to p4's...

if you really want to go ahead with intels marketing terminology... u could also say the a64 has 1600 HTT FSB... coz thats how fast it is with its built-in memory controller on the cpu... twice as fast as p4's front side bus...

the same can be said with dothan/banias... they are both pentium-m's and are not based on the long and inefficient pipeline that the p4 has...so MHZ is a little decieving... and furthermore,,, HTT does not help dothan/banias coz they have a shorter, more efficient pipeline...

a fairer way to look at p4s and a64 cpus is that the a64 will outperform its counterpart in most applications such as gaming, everyday use, and run much cooler (the new p4 presscott cores run very hot, a 3.4ghz presscot runs 76C with the case off). but at the same time the p4 is credited with being the better performer when it comes to encoding video/audio and workstation use... this is attributed to its larger cache size (2mb-4mb l2 cache)... this will become even more apparent when the new a64 cpus come out halving the l2 cache to 512kb to increase speed/performance

e-machines are selling amd64 laptops with the 'mobile' version... the true mobile version differs from the DTR version in teh sense that it can take advantage of pc3200 (ddr400) memory and it uses less voltage.. 60-ish v as opposed to the DTR which uses 80-ish v.
post #4 of 35
Your argument assumes that we want the fastest laptop there is, otherwise we would be content with a nice little 1.7 P-M.

However, not everyone is in that position. For example I recently was in the need of a portable, with a real long battery life. I didnt need the most processing power out there, so I bought a notebook last week.

Dothan is coming out in a month? a week? a day? Boo hoo, good for those that are going to get it. I personaly am in no need of the best processor out there, since my notebook does what I need it to do.

Also, why buy the initial batch of notebooks that come out with the new processors. I think there are going to be some kinks to work out and I personaly dont like jumping into the fray right when new tech comes out. Give it a couple of months and let it get patched up.

Therefore if I were in your position and you had the same needs as I (which you obviously dont), then I would have bought a notebook instead of having waited months like you did. Then when the tech is finaly released id let everyone experiment, and a couple of more months later when I get tired of my notebook I can buy one. No need to wait all of those months just wasting time waiting for the new processors to come out.
post #5 of 35
Endernet I was about to say almost the same thing, but you said better then me anyway, so I have the same thinking here...

Besides, you can always upgrade later on. As for me I don't intend on getting 2.0 Dothan for $635 even if it was released today.
post #6 of 35
yes dothan being released soon si not a "new" centrino

alviso/sonoma will be the next generation centrino 2

dothan was just a name for a core upgrade of teh current p-m platform...

and ender is right in the sense that its untested/unproven... im sure it will be an improvement over the current p-m banias, but by how much? they are upping the L2 cache by 100%... you will have 2mb of l2 cache... as we all know, the more l2 cache you have the more latency it creates... this might stunt the true performance power of dothan, but who knows its just all speculation now... dothan will have to jump thru other hoops aside from just this one... it will have to prove that it can be a "pop in" replacement for the 855 chipset which was said/marketed to "support dothan".. initial concerns would be since dothan is running at higher frequencies,,, it might generate more heat and be unsuitable as a pop in replacement cpu without some cooling tweaks,,, but again thats all speculation

the current banias p-m have been out for awhile now and its proven/been tested

if anythign wait till may 10th and get a nice price drop on the 1.7 banias, and get it :P

or get the new 2.0ghz p-m dothan

now can be a good or bad time to buy a new laptop...

it can be bad if ur waiting for a true mobile dtr with the m11 gpu... there just arent any out yet

it can be a good time if your going to buy a p-m coz on may 10th, u will get a big price drop and have an option of getting the new dothan

the p4 is good now or later, it wont get a new price drop... i dont see the hotter presscott making its way into notebooks anytime soon...
post #7 of 35
Yes, this is. People who need laptops right NOW shouldn't care though. THose of who are more enthusiasts should definately wait.
post #8 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by kcmcg
"In a few months or less you could possibly buy a new, more powerful notebook for the same price, or just the same notebook you want now for a lot less money."

Isnt this the general rule for any computer? I dont see why now is any different. Yes, new things are around a closer corner now than they were 2 weeks ago...but as such the cycle goes
It isn't a cycle as much as you make it out to be. We don't get socket changes, slot changes (PCI-express), memory changes (DDR2), Generation Graphics changes (Radeon X800, Geforce 6800), every month. Most of the time its just a slight boost to the previous. Slight overclocking of this GPU, slightly higher CPU, slightly faster memory, etc etc.

But this my friend is a MAJOR OVERHAUL. Happens once in a 5-10 years. If your going to buy at the end of the final "cycle", then you might as well be throwing money away.
post #9 of 35
Enthusiasts will get anything now and sell it once something new comes out.... People who have money are called "Enthusiasts".

Didn't you notice once something new comes out something new announced at the same time... so you can end up waiting and waiting...
post #10 of 35
I disagree. Enthusiasts are not always rich people, but this is their hobby. There are also enthusiasts who are students like me, who are poor (and whos parents refuse to fund our hobby heh).

As far as I know, the successor to PCI-express has not been announced, nor is there DDR3 memory, and the fact that Geforce 6800 isn't even out yet. So there. I'm sick of people always saying you would end up "waiting and waiting", because we are buying BASE systems here. BUying a laptop now means your not going to be able to upgrade later. But if you buy with PCI-express compatibilty, DDR2, new CPU socket, etc you would be able to upgrade when you feel like it.

Waiting for this is exactly for the budget conscious, and how many everyday consumers who also LOVES computers wants to buy a new one every month? For those who are bloody rich, I just wish I could be one of them, cause they got the best of both (most) worlds.

And I also emphasize that when people need a computer NOW to USE it for something like work, then the opportunity cost of waiting is far greater, and I would obviously encourage them to buy now and to find the best deal. For those of us who use computers more as 'toys", Its much smarter to wait a few months.
post #11 of 35
sonoma alvisio will be a major overhaul
post #12 of 35
you will wait a long time before you see all this in one package and even if there is huge increase in power (which I highly doubt) for DDR2 or PCI-express for general use it will be usless... so if you want a laptop now, get it, if you can wait then wait... it's up to you.
post #13 of 35
the only good thing to come out of pci-express is its upgradability
pci x 16 or wahtever wont really be used
if u get a good video card how often does a program use up all of the video memory? thats the only time agp is used to help take over
x8 agp isnt even used and i doubt x16 pci express will be either
post #14 of 35
i imagine when pci-express compatible boards come out it will still have an agp slot for agp cards... coz once pci-express is avail on the boards... the video card makers will need to come out with their pci-express gpu
post #15 of 35
rincewind, the laptop I am getting now will be outdated just like any other, even if it had upgradable card it still will be outdated, I am planning on keeping it for 2 years or so then get something else anyway.
post #16 of 35

What about banias?

One thing we should factor in to this discussion is the upcoming banias price drop; basically all the old p-m chips are being bumped down one "notch" in pricing. Thus, the 1.7g banias will retail for the much more reasonable price 1.6g's sell for today. So instead of going for the next big thing, you can get the more mature processor for cheap. Of course this didn't stop me from ordering a 2056 on monday....

btw, are powernotebooks.com systems named after scripture passages (3:16)?!
post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by mojesha37
btw, are powernotebooks.com systems named after scripture passages (3:16)?!
yup
post #18 of 35
Not only that, DDR2 isn't going to be cheap. Word is that it'll be 20-30% more expensive than "vanilla" DDR.

Add to that the fact that the latencies on it suck rocks and it's really not worth the bother at this point.

I really hope Centrino2/Sonoma/whatever they finally call it will have a vanilla DDR version. The Grantsdale and Alderwood chipsets can do both (just not at the same time), so there is hope at least.

Super
post #19 of 35

3:16

That only makes me want one even more!!
post #20 of 35
It is a particularly bad time to have to buy a notebook. I certainly am glad I don't have to right now. There are a number of serious revolutionary changes in the works. You can believe it or not but ATI does (its new generation chip will be exclusively PCIe), so does NVidia (at least halfway)(and the 6800 is out). Intel does too. AMD isn't quite sure about PCIe but they don't have to be, they make the chips, not the mainboards. As long as the board has a 939 socket, they are happy. They also don't need DDR2 at least until the speed ramps up in 6 to 12 months. DDR3 does exist but its not ready for prime time. There are other big issues as well. PCIe will revolutionize notebooks. There are new battery technologies coming out as well as fuel cell technologies. And then there is the potential for OLED screens to replace the expensive and fragile LCDs.

I will be looking at buying a new machine next January and I am hoping most of this will have settled out by then.

If I had to buy a new machine right now, today, I would probably go with an 8890 or and 8790, they offer the most bang for the buck. If I could wait for middle to end of summer. I'd be looking at a machine based on an AMD with a new ATI. Haven't a clue what I will do next January, I am becoming more and more unsure the situation will be resolved by then. Intel seems to be wandering all over the place with no clear direction. MS is somewhat the same, first its W64 is a real maybe someday then its hot and bothered right now and then it s a definite eventually and then its ... .... AMD at least seems to have a focus and direction.

I may well just build something based on desktop components. Then at least I can upgrade easily enough.
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