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Laptop Prices of 2008 - Page 3

post #41 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:11am
lol...yeah, leds make sence. they last a very long time (that is why some up-scale car copanies are now making led-based tail lights for 2 reasons. 1)they last long and your car will die faster than a led. 2)they give you faster responce times, so less time passes from the time you slam on the break, to the time the red light in the back goes on).
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post #42 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:14am
arent't they cheaper too? i worked with led's in electronics but these are more complex i think. unless they use tiny rbg leds.
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post #43 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:15am
i'm not sure just how "alive" they are, i think it's just the light emitting part of the organism. It would be weird if the screen started to crawl away tho lol
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post #44 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:17am
or pulsate.
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post #45 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:31am
or develop AI and take over your brain
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post #46 of 65
7/19/04 at 12:32am
if they can make me feel intoxicated all the time. then it might just be worth it.
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post #47 of 65
7/19/04 at 2:24am
Quote:
It is 100%, completely impossible, to make any specific predictions 4 years in advance in the computer industry. You're asking a rediculous question.
Not 100% impossible. You can make a good estimate assuming there are no huge breakthroughs.

For example, GPUs should be 256 times the power of what we have today in four years.


Here is four years ago ... dont askhttp://www.infohq.com/Computer/HardwarePredictions.htm
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post #48 of 65
7/19/04 at 2:35am

Sorry to burst your bubble ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by OGREtheBUFFOON
or develop AI and take over your brain
In material-science terms, organic just means that the compound contains carbon rings of some kind.

In the case of OLEDs they just mean that the junction/die of the diode is made of an organic material (instead of silica or some other semi-conductor)

It is very nice because the backlight is eliminated, but they must resolve longevity issues before it becomes a mass-market technology.
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post #49 of 65
7/19/04 at 2:36am
Roadmap 200X

This guy has roadmaps going way back to 1999, so you can take a look back into the past or into the future.
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post #50 of 65
7/19/04 at 4:34am
I doubt that anything too drastic will come about in 4 years for notebooks. I assume that it will be mostly evolutionary advances - but in the world of technology you just never know.

Screen: Better quality LCDs with better color reproduction, response time, viewing angles, and resolution. Plasma is unrealistic because it has a very high power usage and a relatively low MTBF. Organic (carbon containing) displays are still quite a bit off.

Processor and Mobo: Limited by power consumption concerns. We'll get speed bumps, 64-bit technology, better SIMD, better chipsets with dual channel, and redesigned optimized proccessors, but nothing really special.

Hard Disk: Probably will still be at 7200 rpm (just more prevalent). Capacities will increase due to higher platter densities. Solid state would be nice, but it'll probably be too expensive, just like now (tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for several GBs).

GPU: Hopefully by then we'll have Radeon x800 series or greater performance, but heat and power usage are huge concerns.
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post #51 of 65
7/19/04 at 5:17am
The first large (17") consumer OLED displays are going to appear next year (2005), I think it was Samsung that said.

Now, by 2008, OLED displays will certainly have completely replaced LCD for a number of reasons:

1) MUCH lower power draw (No backlight)
2) Thinner (Lighter, no glass backing needed)
3) Cheaper (Printed on a glorified inkjet)
4) Faster response time (Response time measured in nanoseconds, not milliseconds like an LCD. No more motion blur).

Anything I miss? Now, the downside, is lifespan; after a few years they dim and must be replaced. However, considering how cheap they're supposed to be (We're talking manufacturing costs that are probably a few dollars as opposed to hundreds with LCDs), we might see laptops with easily replacable displays, or perhaps desktop displays so cheap as to be disposable (Keep it for 2-3 years, but a new one).

The things are better, thinner, lighter, cheaper, than LCDs. Notebook manufacturers are going to jump on it if only because they're cheaper; if a notebook manufacturer charges the same for a notebook but saves 300$ on the screen, that's 300$ more profit. Or maybe we will see notebook prices drop 300$ to compensate.
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post #52 of 65
7/19/04 at 5:22am
More info on Samsung's announcements:

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/hardware/eme...9155141,00.htm
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post #53 of 65
7/19/04 at 9:25am
Typically prices stay the same (or dip slightly) and the specification improves. You'll end up paying what you paid now for the equivalent piece of kit in 2008. If you were to purchase a 2004 laptop in 2008 it would probably only cost a few bucks, but would it be able to handle Doom IV or Photoshop 10? Probably not.
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post #54 of 65
7/22/04 at 12:47pm
Thread Starter 
I think that the price of laptops droping is probably more than inflation in 4 years, so it could in theory dip a little more than slightly.
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post #55 of 65
7/22/04 at 1:22pm
probably be quad-cored 8-10ghz cpu's with 30-40 ops per clock. graphics cards should be completely redefined as to what we know them as today so i dunno about those... average ram in a laptop will probably be 4 gigs ddr3.. hard drives may be redefined as well.. current form factor of hard drives is just too slow for even today's standards.. something new should come out by then for storage purposes.... at least these are my assumptions.. probably be about the same price as today's computers.
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post #56 of 65
9/28/04 at 2:54pm
i think the jump from 2000 to 2004 was mcuh smaller that the jump of 2004-2008..
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post #57 of 65
9/28/04 at 8:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddieZ
i think the jump from 2000 to 2004 was mcuh smaller that the jump of 2004-2008..
Was or is going to be.. because unless you have some sort of time machine....
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post #58 of 65
9/28/04 at 8:54pm
hmmmm....

wouldn't we expect clock speeds not to increse my that much? Doesn't higher clockspeed = higher heat + higher power consumption (this may not be true in the future).

I expect to see a max of about 5 ghz clock speed.

Anyone know what's slated for intel and AMD next year? New centrino 2 or whatever coming out?
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post #59 of 65
9/28/04 at 9:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarfol
hmmmm....

wouldn't we expect clock speeds not to increse my that much? Doesn't higher clockspeed = higher heat + higher power consumption (this may not be true in the future).

I expect to see a max of about 5 ghz clock speed.

Anyone know what's slated for intel and AMD next year? New centrino 2 or whatever coming out?
Havent you heard the future is in multi processors?
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post #60 of 65
9/29/04 at 2:26am
look here

http://notebookforums.com/showthread...578#post460578
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