What will be the market of Laptop CPUs like in 6 months

6% P4, 60% PM, 2% MA64 30% Turion, and 2% A64 X2

I think that the P4 will be pretty much obsolete outside of the high end Sager 9860. PM will still be dominating due to price drops and probable increase in processor speeds (up to 2.5GHz I'm guessing) and the Turion is going to find a very nice niche with the small increase in 64-bit applications and it's mobility. The change goes to the X2, because it will have a small opening market so long as the high performance PM and Turion are still delivering great battery life.

After seeing the new Benchmarks for Turion and P-M...i would actually think the P-M would have an even higher percentage than 50%. Maybe somewhere close to 65% or 70%.

Pretty much agree with BannedNinja--P4s are on the way out.

The options don't look that great to me, P4 should be about dead and PM should have a very high market share. This is my guess:

10% P4, 50% PM, 30% Turion, 7% MA64 and 3% A64 X2

jesus... someone spent a lot of time on that poll

Bahama.... I always look to see what you have to say because of your avatar....


Anyhow.... yes, that does seem like it was time consuming. Long pr0n downloads?

I agree with BannedNinja's numbers. P4 will disappear and 6 months is too short to see a real increase in dual core laptops. As for the MA64, i think the today situation won't really change, so the main market part is about P-M and Turion for now.

In one year, my numbers would be :
PM 45-50% - Turion 30-35% // DC pentium 5-10% - Athlon X2 10-15%

no clue, as I dont even know what the numbers look like now. I bet there are more people with p4s than you might think. If someone has some estimates from a reliable source, i would like to hear it.


edit: if there was one thing that I learned about the technology industry.......it is that it changes too much to make any kind of reliable prediction.

I don't really know what the figures look like now, but I predict Turion 64 will have a pretty tough time gaining ground in the market. AMD have to rely on 3rd parties for their platform, where Intel can sell Centrino as a Intel branded mobile solution.

This is not a comment on the relative quality of AMD's offering; rather, a comment on how important it is to be able to sell a branded solution to customers.

Though the PM will certainly have the most market share, AMD should make more inroads.

People have been "forced" to buy Intel and/or felt comfort in buying it since it was the "best' due to its brand recognition. Until 2 years ago, all I thought about was Intel. This as due to its technology and slick marketing. But AMD has always offered good competing process. As I look back I realize that I bought INtel and never even considered AMD due to comfort in the name and that is all I ever had.

But for the last few years AMD has continued to be on a roll, and seems to be shifting culutral attitudes, if you will about AMD. My last 4 machines have been AMD to inlcude one notebook, and this is solely because of performance. SO I think unexpectedly, people will start buying more AMD. Companies have been adopting more and more AMD. Eventually even Dell may offer them.

So I see the PM have about 15% with the PM being the monster at around 60%. The Turion may ring in with about 20% with X2/FX following at 5%.

Though the shift certainly will not be fast, I thinking the change to 64-bit computing may help out AMD some more. They have harkeened 66-bit computing for 2 years now, and apparently the X2 outperforms the Intel 64-bit cpus, and the Turion is a lot closer to PM performance than its predeccersors.

Maybe more people will realize that there is a substitute out there. AMD efforts from the last wo years may pay off a bit more in the future. When I talk to people they simply don't know AMD and it is not offered in the numbers INtel is, and thatis the main reason they do not buy it or are unaware of it.

The only thing I have a problem with is there isn't an option in the poll for a low % of P4 combined with a high % of P-M. I'd say its going to be like 10% P4, 70% P-M, 19% Various AMDs, 1% other - but not in 6 months, more like 1 year.

That poll is stupid. The P4 will be obsolete, but if we vote for 10% P4, then PM wil be really low as well... while it will really probaly be quite high.

My prediction:

P4 = 0%
PM = 60%
Turion = 30%
AMD64 = 10%

This is, in my opnion, the best guess I've seen so far--except I do think we'll see this in 6 months.

yeah seriously, you guys do need to understand that some of the p4 laptops are really cheap. And many people dont really care that much about performance. All they see is a notebook for $600 and they buy it. Heck, both of my close friends have a p4 in their notebook. One of em got it for like 599 and the other got it for 1600. One of them just cares about being able to run word while the other games on it.

Me, I just look at the offerings. I don't see a P4 in either Dell's or Gateway's notebook lines.

Admittedly, 0% is a little small . . .

EDIT: My mistake, I forgot the M520